Vélez 2–1 Alhaurino: Result & Stats

Vélez

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alhaurino

Ismael Gallar 88'

Pablo 17'

Dani 19'

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez44%

×Draw26%

Alhaurino31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VélezExpected goals in this matchAlhaurino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Vélez

1.47

Alhaurino

1.19

Vélez creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 47 away

1.41

creates per match

1.11

1.26

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vélez

1.41

Alhaurino

1.11

allows per match

Vélez

1.26

Alhaurino

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par

Alhaurino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Alhaurino →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vélez or draw

69%

Vélez or Alhaurino

74%

Draw or Alhaurino

56%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+

21%

Alhaurino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals

77%

Vélez 2+ goals

43%

Vélez 3+ goals

18%

Alhaurino 1+ goals

70%

Alhaurino 2+ goals

33%

Alhaurino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)

59%

Alhaurino (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Alhaurino away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Alhaurino defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Alhaurino attack 1.11 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vélez scores more

44%

level

26%

Alhaurino scores more

31%

Vélez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Pablo

19'

Dani

60'

M. Sani← Josemi Rey

75'

Toribio← Álvaro Ocaña

75'

D. Gory← Víctor Armero

75'

Ismael Gallar← Pablo

81'

Ramírez← Amin Guerrero

88'

Cristian Medina← Joselinho

88'

Ulises← Lupiáñez

88'

Ismael Gallar

Vélez

Alhaurino

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pablo

Manager: Juan Carlos

75'▲Toribio←▼Álvaro Ocaña

75'▲D. Gory←▼Víctor Armero

75'▲Ismael Gallar←▼Pablo

88'▲Cristian Medina←▼Joselinho

Vélez substitutes

ToribioGoryGallarMedina

Manager: Francis García

60'▲M. Sani←▼Josemi Rey

81'▲Ramírez←▼Amin Guerrero

88'▲Ulises←▼Lupiáñez

Alhaurino substitutes

SaniRamírezUlises