Vélez vs Alhaurín: Preview & Prediction

Vélez

CANC

22:00

Alhaurín

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 37Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez53%

×Draw23%

Alhaurín23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VélezExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.12

Vélez

1.81

Alhaurín

1.12

Vélez creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

1.41

creates per match

0.98

1.26

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Vélez

1.41

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

Vélez

1.26

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Alhaurín →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vélez or draw

77%

Vélez or Alhaurín

77%

Draw or Alhaurín

47%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+

30%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals

84%

Vélez 2+ goals

54%

Vélez 3+ goals

27%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

67%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

31%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)

69%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vélez scores more

53%

level

23%

Alhaurín scores more

23%

Vélez at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vélez vs Alhaurín — Match Preview

Vélez face Alhaurín on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vélez host Alhaurín at Estadio Vivar Téllez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Vélez vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Vélez vs Alhaurín — Match Preview