Velez Sarsfield 2–1 Sportivo Las Parejas

Velez Sarsfield

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Las Parejas

2/22/2024

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Velez Sarsfield61%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Las Parejas15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.64

Velez Sarsfield

1.60

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.64

Velez Sarsfield creates 150% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.60

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

2.00

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.60

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

0.67

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

85%

Velez Sarsfield or Sportivo Las Parejas

75%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

39%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

33%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

80%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

47%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

22%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

47%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

14%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

80%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 2.00 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.60 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

61%

level

25%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

15%

Velez Sarsfield at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff