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Vélez Sársfield Res. vs River Plate Res. — Reserve League 2022

Vélez Sársfield Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate Res.
River Plate Res.
8/1/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Vélez Sársfield Res.49%
×Draw25%
River Plate Res.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.56
River Plate Res.
1.04

Vélez Sársfield Res. creates 50% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

creates per match

Vélez Sársfield Res.
2.06
River Plate Res.
1.31

allows per match

Vélez Sársfield Res.
0.76
River Plate Res.
1.06

finishing

Vélez Sársfield Res.+0.00on par
River Plate Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez Sársfield Res. ↓

River Plate Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vélez Sársfield Res. or draw
75%
Vélez Sársfield Res. or River Plate Res.
75%
Draw or River Plate Res.
51%

Winning margin

Vélez Sársfield Res. wins by 2+
25%
River Plate Res. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vélez Sársfield Res. 1+ goals
79%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 2+ goals
46%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 3+ goals
21%
River Plate Res. 1+ goals
65%
River Plate Res. 2+ goals
28%
River Plate Res. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vélez Sársfield Res. (draw refunded)
66%
River Plate Res. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez Sársfield Res. at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

River Plate Res. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez Sársfield Res. attack 2.06 + River Plate Res. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

River Plate Res. attack 1.31 + Vélez Sársfield Res. defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vélez Sársfield Res. scores more
49%
level
25%
River Plate Res. scores more
25%

Vélez Sársfield Res. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vélez Sársfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vélez Sársfield Res. vs River Plate Res.

River Plate Res. beat Vélez Sársfield Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on August 1, 2024.