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Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. — Reserve League 2022

Vélez Sársfield Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Argentinos Juniors Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.
10/21/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Vélez Sársfield Res.53%
×Draw25%
Argentinos Juniors Res.22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.57
Argentinos Juniors Res.
0.92

Vélez Sársfield Res. creates 71% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 65 away

creates per match

Vélez Sársfield Res.
2.06
Argentinos Juniors Res.
1.08

allows per match

Vélez Sársfield Res.
0.76
Argentinos Juniors Res.
1.08

finishing

Vélez Sársfield Res.+0.00on par
Argentinos Juniors Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez Sársfield Res. ↓

Argentinos Juniors Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vélez Sársfield Res. or draw
78%
Vélez Sársfield Res. or Argentinos Juniors Res.
75%
Draw or Argentinos Juniors Res.
47%

Winning margin

Vélez Sársfield Res. wins by 2+
27%
Argentinos Juniors Res. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vélez Sársfield Res. 1+ goals
79%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 2+ goals
46%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 3+ goals
21%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 1+ goals
60%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 2+ goals
23%
Argentinos Juniors Res. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vélez Sársfield Res. (draw refunded)
70%
Argentinos Juniors Res. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez Sársfield Res. at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

Argentinos Juniors Res. away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez Sársfield Res. attack 2.06 + Argentinos Juniors Res. defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.57

Argentinos Juniors Res. attack 1.08 + Vélez Sársfield Res. defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vélez Sársfield Res. scores more
53%
level
25%
Argentinos Juniors Res. scores more
22%

Vélez Sársfield Res. at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vélez Sársfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vélez Sársfield Res. 3 – 0 Argentinos Juniors Res.

Vélez Sársfield Res. beat Argentinos Juniors Res. 3-0 in Reserve League on October 21, 2022.