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Velež Nevesinje vs Rudar Prijedor — 1st League - RS 2019

Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
4/2/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 22Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Velež Nevesinje41%
×Draw28%
Rudar Prijedor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež Nevesinje
1.29
Rudar Prijedor
1.08

Velež Nevesinje creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 73 away

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.76
Rudar Prijedor
1.03

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.14
Rudar Prijedor
0.81

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par
Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

Rudar Prijedor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw
69%
Velež Nevesinje or Rudar Prijedor
72%
Draw or Rudar Prijedor
59%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
19%
Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
72%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
37%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
14%
Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
66%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
29%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
57%
Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more
41%
level
28%
Rudar Prijedor scores more
31%

Velež Nevesinje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Velež Nevesinje 1–1 Rudar Prijedor

Velež Nevesinje and Rudar Prijedor drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Nevesinje in Nevesinje.