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Velež Nevesinje vs Radnik Bijeljina — 1st League - RS 2019

Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
11/11/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velež Nevesinje45%
×Draw26%
Radnik Bijeljina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež Nevesinje
1.44
Radnik Bijeljina
1.11

Velež Nevesinje creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.76
Radnik Bijeljina
1.09

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.12

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw
71%
Velež Nevesinje or Radnik Bijeljina
74%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
55%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
22%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
76%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
42%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
18%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
67%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
30%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
60%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more
45%
level
26%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
29%

Velež Nevesinje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velež Nevesinje vs Radnik Bijeljina

Radnik Bijeljina beat Velež Nevesinje 3-2 in 1st League - RS on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Nevesinje in Nevesinje.