Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Velež Nevesinje vs FK Romanija Pale — 1st League - RS 2019

Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
11/23/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Velež Nevesinje57%
×Draw23%
FK Romanija Pale20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velež Nevesinje
1.80
FK Romanija Pale
0.97

Velež Nevesinje creates 86% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.76
FK Romanija Pale
0.80

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje
1.14
FK Romanija Pale
1.84

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par
FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

FK Romanija Pale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw
80%
Velež Nevesinje or FK Romanija Pale
77%
Draw or FK Romanija Pale
43%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
32%
FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
83%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
54%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
27%
FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
62%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
25%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
74%
FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.80

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more
57%
level
23%
FK Romanija Pale scores more
20%

Velež Nevesinje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velež Nevesinje vs FK Romanija Pale

Velež Nevesinje and FK Romanija Pale drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Nevesinje in Nevesinje.