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Veleshta vs Velazerimi 77 — Second League 2019

Veleshta
Veleshta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Velazerimi 77
Velazerimi 77
5/8/2021Second LeagueSecond League · West - 26Stadion Velešta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Veleshta50%
×Draw27%
Velazerimi 7724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleshta
1.46
Velazerimi 77
0.91

Veleshta creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Veleshta
1.44
Velazerimi 77
0.81

allows per match

Veleshta
1.00
Velazerimi 77
1.48

finishing

Veleshta+0.00on par
Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleshta ↓

Velazerimi 77 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veleshta or draw
76%
Veleshta or Velazerimi 77
73%
Draw or Velazerimi 77
50%

Winning margin

Veleshta wins by 2+
25%
Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Veleshta 1+ goals
77%
Veleshta 2+ goals
43%
Veleshta 3+ goals
18%
Velazerimi 77 1+ goals
60%
Velazerimi 77 2+ goals
23%
Velazerimi 77 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Veleshta (draw refunded)
68%
Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleshta at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleshta attack 1.44 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.81 + Veleshta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Veleshta scores more
50%
level
27%
Velazerimi 77 scores more
24%

Veleshta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Veleshta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Veleshta 2–1 Velazerimi 77

Veleshta beat Velazerimi 77 2-1 in Second League on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Velešta in Veleshta.