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Veleshta vs KF Gostivari — Second League 2019

Veleshta
Veleshta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
5/14/2022Second LeagueSecond League · West - 27Stadion Velešta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Veleshta35%
×Draw28%
KF Gostivari37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleshta
1.19
KF Gostivari
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Veleshta
1.40
KF Gostivari
1.66

allows per match

Veleshta
0.80
KF Gostivari
0.97

finishing

Veleshta+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleshta ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veleshta or draw
63%
Veleshta or KF Gostivari
72%
Draw or KF Gostivari
65%

Winning margin

Veleshta wins by 2+
15%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Veleshta 1+ goals
70%
Veleshta 2+ goals
33%
Veleshta 3+ goals
12%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
71%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
35%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Veleshta (draw refunded)
49%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleshta at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleshta attack 1.40 + KF Gostivari defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

KF Gostivari attack 1.66 + Veleshta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Veleshta scores more
35%
level
28%
KF Gostivari scores more
37%

KF Gostivari at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veleshta vs KF Gostivari

KF Gostivari beat Veleshta 2-1 in Second League on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Velešta in Veleshta.