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Veles vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
9/13/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veles52%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.60
Znamya Truda
0.98

Veles creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Veles
1.63
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Veles or draw
77%
Veles or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
48%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
27%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
80%
Veles 2+ goals
47%
Veles 3+ goals
22%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
62%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
26%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
69%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.63 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veles scores more
52%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
23%

Veles at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Veles 1–1 Znamya Truda

Veles and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.