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Veles vs Znamya Noginsk — Cup 2019

Veles
Veles
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
8/20/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Veles33%
×Draw25%
Znamya Noginsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.31
Znamya Noginsk
1.52

Znamya Noginsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Veles
1.63
Znamya Noginsk
1.80

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Znamya Noginsk
1.00

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Veles or draw
58%
Veles or Znamya Noginsk
75%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
67%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
14%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
73%
Veles 2+ goals
38%
Veles 3+ goals
14%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
78%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
45%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
44%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.63 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.80 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veles scores more
33%
level
25%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
42%

Znamya Noginsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Veles 2–0 Znamya Noginsk

Veles beat Znamya Noginsk 2-0 in Cup on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Podol'sk.