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Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
16:00
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
12/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Avangard Stadium
Big match
41%
Veles
model favours
41%26%33%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Veles41%
×Draw26%
Volga Ulyanovsk33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.27

Veles creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Veles
1.50
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.96

allows per match

Veles
1.57
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.35

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veles or draw
67%
Veles or Volga Ulyanovsk
74%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
59%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
19%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
76%
Veles 2+ goals
42%
Veles 3+ goals
17%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
72%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
36%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
55%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.50 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.96 + Veles defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veles scores more
41%
level
26%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
33%

Veles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Volga Ulyanovsk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Match Preview

Veles face Volga Ulyanovsk on December 5, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Veles host Volga Ulyanovsk at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.