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Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
3/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Veles42%
×Draw28%
Volga Ulyanovsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.30
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.05

Veles creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 34 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veles or draw
70%
Veles or Volga Ulyanovsk
72%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
58%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
19%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
73%
Veles 2+ goals
37%
Veles 3+ goals
14%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
58%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veles scores more
42%
level
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
30%

Veles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Veles and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 0-0 in First League on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.