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Veles vs Ural — Cup 2019

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ural
Ural
10/21/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Veles40%
×Draw25%
Ural35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.43
Ural
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Veles
1.63
Ural
1.41

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Ural
1.23

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veles or draw
65%
Veles or Ural
75%
Draw or Ural
60%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
19%
Ural wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
76%
Veles 2+ goals
42%
Veles 3+ goals
17%
Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
38%
Ural 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
53%
Ural (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Ural away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.63 + Ural defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ural attack 1.41 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more
40%
level
25%
Ural scores more
35%

Veles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veles 1 – 3 Ural

Ural beat Veles 3-1 in Cup on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.