Veles 2–1 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow 2

11/17/2021

First League · Round 23Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles44%

×Draw25%

Spartak Moscow 231%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Veles

1.50

Spartak Moscow 2

1.21

Veles creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

1.40

creates per match

1.18

1.25

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Veles or draw

69%

Veles or Spartak Moscow 2

75%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

56%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

22%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

78%

Veles 2+ goals

44%

Veles 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

70%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

34%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

59%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veles scores more

44%

level

25%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

31%

Veles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff