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Veles vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
16:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
11/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Avangard Stadium
Big match
40%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
35%25%40%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Veles35%
×Draw25%
Spartak Kostroma40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.39
Spartak Kostroma
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Veles
1.36
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Veles
1.45
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Veles or draw
60%
Veles or Spartak Kostroma
75%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
65%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
16%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
75%
Veles 2+ goals
40%
Veles 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
44%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
47%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.36 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Veles defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more
35%
level
25%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
40%

Spartak Kostroma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Spartak Kostroma

November 1, 2026: Veles take on Spartak Kostroma in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Spartak Kostroma at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.