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Spartak Kostroma vs Veles — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Veles
Veles
7/21/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 1Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma41%
×Draw30%
Veles30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Veles
0.95

Spartak Kostroma creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.33
Veles
0.97

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
0.94
Veles
1.00

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
70%
Spartak Kostroma or Veles
70%
Draw or Veles
59%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
17%
Veles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
11%
Veles 1+ goals
61%
Veles 2+ goals
25%
Veles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
58%
Veles (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Veles away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Veles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Veles attack 0.97 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
41%
level
30%
Veles scores more
30%

Spartak Kostroma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Veles

Spartak Kostroma and Veles drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.