Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veles vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
16:30
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
8/3/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Avangard Stadium
Big match
39%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
34%27%39%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Veles34%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.17
Rotor Volgograd
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 38 away

creates per match

Veles
1.36
Rotor Volgograd
1.11

allows per match

Veles
1.45
Rotor Volgograd
0.97

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veles or draw
61%
Veles or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
66%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
14%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
69%
Veles 2+ goals
33%
Veles 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
72%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
37%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
46%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.36 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.11 + Veles defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veles scores more
34%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
39%

Rotor Volgograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Rotor Volgograd

August 3, 2026: Veles take on Rotor Volgograd in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Rotor Volgograd at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.