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Veles vs Rotor Volgograd — Cup 2019

Veles
Veles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
I. Geloyan 73'
M. Kovalkov 19'
D. Lavrishchev 22'
9/24/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Veles47%
×Draw25%
Rotor Volgograd28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.56
Rotor Volgograd
1.13

Veles creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Veles
1.63
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Rotor Volgograd
1.50

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veles or draw
72%
Veles or Rotor Volgograd
75%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
53%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
24%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
79%
Veles 2+ goals
46%
Veles 3+ goals
21%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
68%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
31%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
63%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.63 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Veles scores more
47%
level
25%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
28%

Veles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Kovalkov
22'
D. Lavrishchev
46'
D. Fomin← A. Shumskikh
46'
A. Khokhlachev← K. Nikishin
63'
M. Khramtsov← D. Sasin
63'
M. Kaynov← I. Aznaurov
63'
A. Simonyan← D. Lavrishchev
66'
D. Burkin← S. Lapinsky
66'
I. Geloyan← P. Popov
66'
V. Galkin← E. Sysoev
66'
O. Smirnov← M. Kovalkov
73'
I. Geloyan
76'
M. Khramtsov

Statistics

VelesRotor
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Cup: Veles 2–1 Rotor Volgograd

Veles beat Rotor Volgograd 2-1 in Cup on September 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Kovalkov (19'), D. Lavrishchev (22'), I. Geloyan (73').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Podol'sk.