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Veles vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
9/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles37%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.19
Rotor Volgograd
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Rotor Volgograd
0.97

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veles or draw
65%
Veles or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
63%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
16%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
70%
Veles 2+ goals
33%
Veles 3+ goals
12%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
69%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
32%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
51%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Veles scores more
37%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
35%

Veles at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Rotor Volgograd

Veles beat Rotor Volgograd 3-1 in First League on September 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.