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Veles vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
10/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Veles30%
×Draw26%
Orenburg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.17
Orenburg
1.48

Orenburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 40 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Orenburg
1.70

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Orenburg
0.95

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veles or draw
56%
Veles or Orenburg
74%
Draw or Orenburg
70%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
12%
Orenburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
69%
Veles 2+ goals
33%
Veles 3+ goals
11%
Orenburg 1+ goals
77%
Orenburg 2+ goals
43%
Orenburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
40%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veles scores more
30%
level
26%
Orenburg scores more
44%

Orenburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Veles 1–1 Orenburg

Veles and Orenburg drew 1-1 in First League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.