Veles 1–2 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Metallurg Lipetsk

4/30/2022

First League · Round 35Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Veles53%

×Draw23%

Metallurg Lipetsk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.10

Veles

1.78

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.10

Veles creates 62% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.25

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.95

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Veles or draw

77%

Veles or Metallurg Lipetsk

77%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

47%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

30%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

83%

Veles 2+ goals

53%

Veles 3+ goals

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

67%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

30%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

69%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.78

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Veles scores more

53%

level

23%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

23%

Veles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff