Veles 3–1 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Krylya Sovetov

8/8/2020

First League · Round 2Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Veles30%

×Draw27%

Krylya Sovetov43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.40

Veles

1.13

Krylya Sovetov

1.40

Krylya Sovetov creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

1.40

creates per match

1.55

1.25

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Krylya Sovetov

1.55

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Krylya Sovetov

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Veles or draw

57%

Veles or Krylya Sovetov

73%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

70%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

12%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

68%

Veles 2+ goals

31%

Veles 3+ goals

11%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

75%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

41%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

41%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Veles scores more

30%

level

27%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

43%

Krylya Sovetov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff