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Veles vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
3/8/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 2Avangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Veles53%
×Draw26%
Kaluga21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.52
Kaluga
0.86

Veles creates 77% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Veles
1.49
Kaluga
0.83

allows per match

Veles
0.89
Kaluga
1.56

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veles or draw
79%
Veles or Kaluga
74%
Draw or Kaluga
47%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
27%
Kaluga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
78%
Veles 2+ goals
45%
Veles 3+ goals
20%
Kaluga 1+ goals
58%
Kaluga 2+ goals
21%
Kaluga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
71%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Veles scores more
53%
level
26%
Kaluga scores more
21%

Veles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Kaluga

Veles beat Kaluga 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Avangard Stadium in Domodedovo.