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Veles vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
11/12/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Veles39%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Makhachkala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.11
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.97

Veles creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 34 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Veles or draw
69%
Veles or Dinamo Makhachkala
70%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
61%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
67%
Veles 2+ goals
30%
Veles 3+ goals
10%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veles scores more
39%
level
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
31%

Veles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Veles 1-0 in First League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.