Veles 2–0 Chayka: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chayka

G. Sarkisyan 27' (pen)

I. Kutepov 11'

10/22/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veles44%

×Draw27%

Chayka29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchChayka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Veles

1.35

Chayka

1.05

Veles creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Veles

1.49

Chayka

1.22

allows per match

Veles

0.89

Chayka

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Chayka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Veles or draw

71%

Veles or Chayka

73%

Draw or Chayka

56%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

20%

Chayka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

74%

Veles 2+ goals

39%

Veles 3+ goals

15%

Chayka 1+ goals

65%

Chayka 2+ goals

28%

Chayka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

60%

Chayka (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Chayka defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chayka attack 1.22 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veles scores more

44%

level

27%

Chayka scores more

29%

Veles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

I. Kutepov

27'

G. SarkisyanPenalty

46'

Y. Frolov← E. Pesikov

46'

S. Kozhedub← I. Detenyshev

48'

S. Kozhedub

50'

M. Matveev

57'

P. Dolgov← A. Khokhlachev

64'

P. Karasev← Y. Ivakin

69'

A. Kuskov← M. Denilkhanov

70'

N. Karmaev

72'

A. Terekhov

82'

D. Gribanov← N. Koldunov

85'

I. Kotelnikov← O. Smirnov

85'

D. Rubanov← G. Sarkisyan

Veles

Chayka

45

40

3

32

4

▼

44

11

8

94

▼

Koldunov

77

Zarypbeko

7

▼

Khokhlach

1

Kuznetsov

2

⚽

Kutepov

31

Matveev

22

▼

Denilkhan

8

Kobakhidz

20

▼

Ivakin

17

▼

Pesikov

4

Mikhaylen

77

▼

Smirnov

97

Shubin

99

⚽

▼

Sarkisyan

Manager: A. Grishchenko

46'▲Y. Frolov←▼E. Pesikov

64'▲P. Karasev←▼Y. Ivakin

69'▲A. Kuskov←▼M. Denilkhanov

85'▲I. Kotelnikov←▼O. Smirnov

85'▲D. Rubanov←▼G. Sarkisyan

Veles substitutes

10Frolov25Karasev21Kuskov14Kotelnikov55Rubanov13Shitov24Okropiridze27Akmurzin70Amiraliev73Kopylov93Motovichev

Manager: I. Semshov

46'▲S. Kozhedub←▼I. Detenyshev

57'▲P. Dolgov←▼A. Khokhlachev

82'▲D. Gribanov←▼N. Koldunov

Chayka substitutes

22Kozhedub19Dolgov17Gribanov9Grigoryan10Kvekveskiri18Nikolaev63Nesterov84Ivashin88Fateev97Tsutsulaev99Kozachenko

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Veles 2–0 Chayka

Veles beat Chayka 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 22, 2023.

Goals: I. Kutepov (11'), G. Sarkisyan (27' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.

Veles vs Chayka — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Veles 2–0 Chayka