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Veles vs Baltika — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
3/10/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles34%
×Draw27%
Baltika39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.20
Baltika
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 109 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Veles or draw
61%
Veles or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
66%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
14%
Baltika wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
70%
Veles 2+ goals
34%
Veles 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
72%
Baltika 2+ goals
37%
Baltika 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
47%
Baltika (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Baltika attack 1.34 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veles scores more
34%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
39%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Veles 0–1 Baltika

Baltika beat Veles 1-0 in First League on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.