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Veles vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
11/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Veles33%
×Draw27%
Alaniya II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.15
Alaniya II
1.31

Alaniya II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veles or draw
60%
Veles or Alaniya II
73%
Draw or Alaniya II
67%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
13%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
68%
Veles 2+ goals
32%
Veles 3+ goals
11%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
73%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
38%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
45%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more
33%
level
27%
Alaniya II scores more
40%

Alaniya II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Veles 1–1 Alaniya II

Veles and Alaniya II drew 1-1 in First League on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.