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Veles vs Akron — First League 2018

Veles
Veles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akron
Akron
2/27/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles41%
×Draw28%
Akron32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.29
Akron
1.11

Veles creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 74 away

creates per match

Veles
1.40
Akron
0.97

allows per match

Veles
1.25
Akron
1.18

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veles or draw
68%
Veles or Akron
72%
Draw or Akron
59%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
18%
Akron wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
72%
Veles 2+ goals
37%
Veles 3+ goals
14%
Akron 1+ goals
67%
Akron 2+ goals
30%
Akron 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
56%
Akron (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Akron attack 0.97 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veles scores more
41%
level
28%
Akron scores more
32%

Veles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Akron

Veles and Akron drew 1-1 in First League on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.