Veleçiku Koplik 2–3 Tërbuni Pukë: Result & Stats

Veleçiku Koplik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Tërbuni Pukë

7/4/2020

1st Division · Relegation Round - 6Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik36%

×Draw31%

Tërbuni Pukë33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veleçiku KoplikExpected goals in this matchTërbuni Pukë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.97

Veleçiku Koplik

1.03

Tërbuni Pukë

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

0.84

creates per match

0.51

1.44

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik

0.84

Tërbuni Pukë

0.51

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik

1.44

Tërbuni Pukë

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw

67%

Veleçiku Koplik or Tërbuni Pukë

69%

Draw or Tërbuni Pukë

64%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+

14%

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals

64%

Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals

28%

Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals

9%

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

62%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

25%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)

52%

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more

36%

level

31%

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

33%

Veleçiku Koplik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Veleçiku Koplik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff