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Veleçiku Koplik vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
CANC
13:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
2/15/20201st Division1st Division · Round 16Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik56%
×Draw22%
Shkumbini Peqin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleçiku Koplik
1.89
Shkumbini Peqin
1.08

Veleçiku Koplik creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik
0.84
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik
1.44
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw
79%
Veleçiku Koplik or Shkumbini Peqin
78%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
44%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
32%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
85%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
56%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
29%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
66%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
29%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
72%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more
56%
level
22%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
21%

Veleçiku Koplik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Veleçiku Koplik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veleçiku Koplik face Shkumbini Peqin (1st Division)

1st Division returns with Veleçiku Koplik hosting Shkumbini Peqin. Match starts February 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Veleçiku Koplik host Shkumbini Peqin at Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.