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Veleçiku Koplik vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Oriku
Oriku
5/26/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 10Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik38%
×Draw31%
Oriku31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleçiku Koplik
1.05
Oriku
0.92

Veleçiku Koplik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik
0.84
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik
1.44
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw
69%
Veleçiku Koplik or Oriku
69%
Draw or Oriku
62%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
15%
Oriku wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
65%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
28%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
9%
Oriku 1+ goals
60%
Oriku 2+ goals
23%
Oriku 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
55%
Oriku (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Oriku attack 0.40 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more
38%
level
31%
Oriku scores more
31%

Veleçiku Koplik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Veleçiku Koplik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Veleçiku Koplik 2–3 Oriku

Oriku beat Veleçiku Koplik 3-2 in 1st Division on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi in Shkodër.