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Veleçiku Koplik vs Maliqi — 1st Division 2019

Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maliqi
Maliqi
8/4/20201st Division1st Division · FinalsStadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik51%
×Draw25%
Maliqi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleçiku Koplik
1.64
Maliqi
1.06

Veleçiku Koplik creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik
0.84
Maliqi
0.69

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik
1.44
Maliqi
2.44

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par
Maliqi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Maliqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw
75%
Veleçiku Koplik or Maliqi
75%
Draw or Maliqi
49%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
27%
Maliqi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
81%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
49%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
23%
Maliqi 1+ goals
65%
Maliqi 2+ goals
29%
Maliqi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
67%
Maliqi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Maliqi away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Maliqi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Maliqi attack 0.69 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more
51%
level
25%
Maliqi scores more
25%

Veleçiku Koplik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Veleçiku Koplik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veleçiku Koplik vs Maliqi

Veleçiku Koplik beat Maliqi 2-1 in 1st Division on August 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.