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Velden vs Wolfsberg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Velden
Velden
FT
2 – 0
Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
7/28/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 1Sportplatz Velden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Velden58%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velden
2.17
Wolfsberg
1.27

Velden creates 71% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

creates per match

Velden
2.10
Wolfsberg
1.77

allows per match

Velden
0.76
Wolfsberg
2.24

finishing

Velden+0.00on par
Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velden ↓

Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Velden or draw
78%
Velden or Wolfsberg
79%
Draw or Wolfsberg
42%

Winning margin

Velden wins by 2+
35%
Wolfsberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Velden 1+ goals
89%
Velden 2+ goals
64%
Velden 3+ goals
36%
Wolfsberg 1+ goals
72%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
36%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Velden (draw refunded)
72%
Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velden at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velden attack 2.10 + Wolfsberg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.17

Wolfsberg attack 1.77 + Velden defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Velden scores more
58%
level
21%
Wolfsberg scores more
22%

Velden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Velden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Velden 2–0 Wolfsberg

Velden beat Wolfsberg 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Velden in Velden am Wörthersee.