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Velbazhd vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
9/5/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 5Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Velbazhd42%
×Draw24%
Perun Kresna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.60
Perun Kresna
1.42

Velbazhd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
66%
Velbazhd or Perun Kresna
76%
Draw or Perun Kresna
58%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
21%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
80%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
47%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
22%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
76%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
41%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
55%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Velbazhd scores more
42%
level
24%
Perun Kresna scores more
34%

Velbazhd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Velbazhd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 1–0 Perun Kresna

Velbazhd beat Perun Kresna 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.