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Velbazhd vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
0 – 0
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
10/17/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 11Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd55%
×Draw21%
Levski Chepintsi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
2.20
Levski Chepintsi
1.43

Velbazhd creates 54% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
75%
Velbazhd or Levski Chepintsi
79%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
45%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
33%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
89%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
64%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
37%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
76%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
42%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
69%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.20

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Velbazhd scores more
55%
level
21%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
25%

Velbazhd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Velbazhd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velbazhd vs Levski Chepintsi

Velbazhd and Levski Chepintsi drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.