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Velbazhd vs Hebar 1918 — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
0 – 3
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
4/6/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 25Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velbazhd9%
×Draw19%
Hebar 191871%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
0.57
Hebar 1918
2.01

Hebar 1918 creates 253% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Hebar 1918
1.76

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Hebar 1918
0.53

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
29%
Velbazhd or Hebar 1918
81%
Draw or Hebar 1918
91%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
2%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
43%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
11%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
2%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
87%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
59%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
12%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.57

Hebar 1918 attack 1.76 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Velbazhd scores more
9%
level
19%
Hebar 1918 scores more
71%

Hebar 1918 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 0–3 Hebar 1918

Hebar 1918 beat Velbazhd 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil)).