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Velazerimi 77 vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Velazerimi 77
Velazerimi 77
FT
0 – 2
Pelister
Pelister
3/7/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 16Vlazrimi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Velazerimi 7732%
×Draw29%
Pelister38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velazerimi 77
1.04
Pelister
1.16

Pelister creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 43 away

creates per match

Velazerimi 77
1.10
Pelister
1.51

allows per match

Velazerimi 77
0.81
Pelister
0.98

finishing

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velazerimi 77 ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Velazerimi 77 or draw
62%
Velazerimi 77 or Pelister
71%
Draw or Pelister
68%

Winning margin

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+
12%
Pelister wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals
65%
Velazerimi 77 2+ goals
28%
Velazerimi 77 3+ goals
9%
Pelister 1+ goals
69%
Pelister 2+ goals
32%
Pelister 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)
46%
Pelister (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velazerimi 77 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velazerimi 77 attack 1.10 + Pelister defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Pelister attack 1.51 + Velazerimi 77 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Velazerimi 77 scores more
32%
level
29%
Pelister scores more
38%

Pelister at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velazerimi 77 vs Pelister

Pelister beat Velazerimi 77 2-0 in Second League on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Vlazrimi Arena in Kičevo.