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Velarde vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Velarde
Velarde
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Estadio Municipal de La Maruca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velarde32%
×Draw28%
Siete Villas41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velarde
1.10
Siete Villas
1.29

Siete Villas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

Velarde
0.94
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Velarde
1.59
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Velarde+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velarde ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Velarde or draw
59%
Velarde or Siete Villas
72%
Draw or Siete Villas
68%

Winning margin

Velarde wins by 2+
12%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Velarde 1+ goals
67%
Velarde 2+ goals
30%
Velarde 3+ goals
10%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
72%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
37%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Velarde (draw refunded)
44%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velarde at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velarde attack 0.94 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Velarde defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Velarde scores more
32%
level
28%
Siete Villas scores more
41%

Siete Villas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velarde vs Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Velarde 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca in Muriedas.