Velarde 2–3 Revilla: Result & Stats

Velarde

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Revilla

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Estadio Municipal de La Maruca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velarde37%

×Draw26%

Revilla36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelardeExpected goals in this matchRevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.31

Velarde

1.33

Revilla

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

0.94

creates per match

1.04

1.59

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Velarde

0.94

Revilla

1.04

allows per match

Velarde

1.59

Revilla

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velarde+0.00on par

Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velarde ↓

Revilla →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Velarde or draw

64%

Velarde or Revilla

74%

Draw or Revilla

63%

Winning margin

Velarde wins by 2+

17%

Revilla wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Velarde 1+ goals

74%

Velarde 2+ goals

38%

Velarde 3+ goals

15%

Revilla 1+ goals

73%

Revilla 2+ goals

38%

Revilla 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Velarde (draw refunded)

51%

Revilla (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Velarde at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Velarde attack 0.94 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.33

Revilla attack 1.04 + Velarde defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Velarde scores more

37%

level

26%

Revilla scores more

36%

Velarde at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Velarde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff