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Velarde vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Velarde
Velarde
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Castro
Castro
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Estadio Municipal de La Maruca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velarde34%
×Draw27%
Castro39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velarde
1.20
Castro
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Velarde
0.94
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Velarde
1.59
Castro
1.46

finishing

Velarde+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velarde ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Velarde or draw
61%
Velarde or Castro
73%
Draw or Castro
66%

Winning margin

Velarde wins by 2+
14%
Castro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Velarde 1+ goals
70%
Velarde 2+ goals
34%
Velarde 3+ goals
12%
Castro 1+ goals
73%
Castro 2+ goals
38%
Castro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Velarde (draw refunded)
46%
Castro (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velarde at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velarde attack 0.94 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Castro attack 1.02 + Velarde defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Velarde scores more
34%
level
27%
Castro scores more
39%

Castro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velarde vs Castro

Velarde beat Castro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca in Muriedas.