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Velarde vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Velarde
Velarde
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Estadio Municipal de La Maruca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velarde29%
×Draw25%
Atlético Albericia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velarde
1.19
Atlético Albericia
1.58

Atlético Albericia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Velarde
0.94
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Velarde
1.59
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Velarde+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velarde ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Velarde or draw
54%
Velarde or Atlético Albericia
75%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
71%

Winning margin

Velarde wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Velarde 1+ goals
70%
Velarde 2+ goals
33%
Velarde 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Velarde (draw refunded)
38%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velarde at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velarde attack 0.94 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Velarde defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Velarde scores more
29%
level
25%
Atlético Albericia scores more
46%

Atlético Albericia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Velarde 0–1 Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Velarde 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca in Muriedas.