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Vejle vs Sonderjyske — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vejle
Vejle
CANC
10:00
Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vejle53%
×Draw21%
Sonderjyske26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejle
2.18
Sonderjyske
1.48

Vejle creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vejle
2.00
Sonderjyske
1.09

allows per match

Vejle
1.88
Sonderjyske
2.36

finishing

Vejle+0.00on par
Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

Sonderjyske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vejle or draw
74%
Vejle or Sonderjyske
79%
Draw or Sonderjyske
47%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+
32%
Sonderjyske wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals
89%
Vejle 2+ goals
64%
Vejle 3+ goals
37%
Sonderjyske 1+ goals
77%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
43%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)
67%
Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 2.00 + Sonderjyske defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Sonderjyske attack 1.09 + Vejle defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vejle scores more
53%
level
21%
Sonderjyske scores more
26%

Vejle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vejle vs Sonderjyske — Match Preview

Vejle face Sonderjyske on January 20, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vejle host Sonderjyske at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.