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Sonderjyske vs Vejle — Superliga 2018

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vejle
Vejle
11/2/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Haderslev Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Sonderjyske48%
×Draw25%
Vejle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.58
Vejle
1.12

Sonderjyske creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.33
Vejle
0.80

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.44
Vejle
1.82

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par
Vejle+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Vejle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
73%
Sonderjyske or Vejle
75%
Draw or Vejle
52%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
25%
Vejle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
79%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
47%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
21%
Vejle 1+ goals
67%
Vejle 2+ goals
31%
Vejle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
64%
Vejle (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 97 matches

Vejle away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.82 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.33 + Vejle defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vejle attack 0.80 + Sonderjyske defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
48%
level
25%
Vejle scores more
27%

Sonderjyske at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonderjyske vs Vejle

Sonderjyske beat Vejle 2-1 in Superliga on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Haderslev Football Stadium in Haderslev.