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Vejle vs Hobro — 1. Division 2018

Vejle
Vejle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hobro
Hobro
9/18/20221. Division1. Division · Round 10Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Vejle53%
×Draw24%
Hobro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejle
1.71
Hobro
1.04

Vejle creates 64% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vejle
2.02
Hobro
1.16

allows per match

Vejle
0.93
Hobro
1.40

finishing

Vejle+0.00on par
Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

Hobro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vejle or draw
77%
Vejle or Hobro
76%
Draw or Hobro
47%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+
29%
Hobro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals
82%
Vejle 2+ goals
51%
Vejle 3+ goals
24%
Hobro 1+ goals
65%
Hobro 2+ goals
28%
Hobro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)
70%
Hobro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.40 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 2.02 + Hobro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hobro attack 1.16 + Vejle defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vejle scores more
53%
level
24%
Hobro scores more
23%

Vejle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejle vs Hobro

Vejle beat Hobro 2-0 in 1. Division on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Vejle Stadion in Vejle.