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Vejgaard B vs Frem — 3. Division 2021

Vejgaard B
Vejgaard B
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Frem
Frem
11/18/20233. Division3. Division · Round 16LKB Gistrup Kunstgræsbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vejgaard B31%
×Draw25%
Frem44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejgaard B
1.29
Frem
1.59

Frem creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vejgaard B
1.34
Frem
1.69

allows per match

Vejgaard B
1.50
Frem
1.23

finishing

Vejgaard B+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejgaard B ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vejgaard B or draw
56%
Vejgaard B or Frem
75%
Draw or Frem
69%

Winning margin

Vejgaard B wins by 2+
13%
Frem wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vejgaard B 1+ goals
72%
Vejgaard B 2+ goals
37%
Vejgaard B 3+ goals
14%
Frem 1+ goals
80%
Frem 2+ goals
47%
Frem 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)
41%
Frem (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejgaard B at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

Frem away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejgaard B attack 1.34 + Frem defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Frem attack 1.69 + Vejgaard B defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vejgaard B scores more
31%
level
25%
Frem scores more
44%

Frem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejgaard B vs Frem

Frem beat Vejgaard B 3-0 in 3. Division on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at LKB Gistrup Kunstgræsbanen in Gistrup.