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Vegas vs Nouvelle Génération — League #844 2026

Vegas
Vegas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouvelle Génération
Nouvelle Génération
3/23/2024League #844League #844 · Round 16Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vegas44%
×Draw33%
Nouvelle Génération22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vegas
1.03
Nouvelle Génération
0.64

Vegas creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vegas
0.50
Nouvelle Génération
0.78

allows per match

Vegas
0.50
Nouvelle Génération
1.56

finishing

Vegas+0.00on par
Nouvelle Génération+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegas ↓

Nouvelle Génération →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Vegas or draw
78%
Vegas or Nouvelle Génération
67%
Draw or Nouvelle Génération
56%

Winning margin

Vegas wins by 2+
18%
Nouvelle Génération wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vegas 1+ goals
64%
Vegas 2+ goals
28%
Vegas 3+ goals
9%
Nouvelle Génération 1+ goals
47%
Nouvelle Génération 2+ goals
14%
Nouvelle Génération 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vegas (draw refunded)
66%
Nouvelle Génération (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegas at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Nouvelle Génération away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegas attack 0.50 + Nouvelle Génération defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nouvelle Génération attack 0.78 + Vegas defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vegas scores more
44%
level
33%
Nouvelle Génération scores more
22%

Vegas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vegas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #844: Vegas 0–0 Nouvelle Génération

Vegas and Nouvelle Génération drew 0-0 in League #844 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat in Brazzaville.