Vegas 1–2 Inter Club: Result & Stats | League #844

Vegas

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Club

5/10/2024

League #844 · Round 23Stade Alphonse Massamba-Débat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vegas14%

×Draw40%

Inter Club46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VegasExpected goals in this matchInter Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.35

0.85

Vegas

0.35

Inter Club

0.85

Inter Club creates 143% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.20

0.50

allows per match

0.20

creates per match

Vegas

0.50

Inter Club

1.20

allows per match

Vegas

0.50

Inter Club

0.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vegas+0.00on par

Inter Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under88
Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No83
Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegas ↓

Inter Club →

0–030%

0–126%

0–211%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–02%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

70%30%1.5

34%66%2.5

12%88%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Vegas or draw

54%

Vegas or Inter Club

60%

Draw or Inter Club

86%

Winning margin

Vegas wins by 2+

Inter Club wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vegas 1+ goals

30%

Vegas 2+ goals

Vegas 3+ goals

Inter Club 1+ goals

57%

Inter Club 2+ goals

21%

Inter Club 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vegas (draw refunded)

24%

Inter Club (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vegas at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Inter Club away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vegas attack 0.50 + Inter Club defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.35

Inter Club attack 1.20 + Vegas defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vegas scores more

14%

level

40%

Inter Club scores more

46%

Inter Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff