Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Vegalta Sendai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

9/16/2023

J2 League · Round 35Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai38%

×Draw27%

Mito Hollyhock35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vegalta SendaiExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Vegalta Sendai

1.29

Mito Hollyhock

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 169 away

1.28

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.28

Mito Hollyhock

1.19

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.22

Mito Hollyhock

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw

65%

Vegalta Sendai or Mito Hollyhock

73%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

62%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

17%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

72%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

37%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

14%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

70%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

34%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

53%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.19 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more

38%

level

27%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

35%

Vegalta Sendai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff